Egypt among 6 Arab countries vulnerable to US tariff fallout: ESCWA

Cairo – April 28, 2025: A recent policy brief by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) warns that Egypt is one of six Arab nations likely to be notably affected if U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariff plans are enacted in full.

In the report titled United States Tariff Shockwaves: Impacts on the Arab Region, ESCWA classifies a “significant” effect as one where at least 5% of a country’s total exports are destined for the United States.

Besides Egypt, the countries identified as most at risk include Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Morocco. Jordan stands out as the most exposed, with almost 25% of its exports tied to the U.S. market.

Despite the projected disruption, the outlook for overall export performance remains relatively resilient—especially among members of the Agadir Agreement (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan).

ESCWA estimates that global exports from these countries will contract only modestly, declining by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025. Meanwhile, the broader Arab region is forecast to see virtually flat export growth, with a slight -0.01% change, buoyed in part by a projected 0.1% rise in exports from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

However, US imports to Agadir countries are set to take a sharper hit, with a 24.7% decline expected in 2025 due to rising costs. In response, ESCWA anticipates a pivot toward other major trade partners. Imports from China to these four countries are forecast to rise by 8%, while imports from the European Union are expected to increase by 3.1%. Intra-Arab trade—especially among Agadir signatories—is also projected to grow as countries adapt to new trade dynamics.

Still, the greater threat may lie in indirect effects. ESCWA warns that global economic spillovers from the tariff regime could slow overall demand, particularly in the EU and China, which together absorb nearly one-third of Arab exports. The EU accounts for 17% of Arab export demand, while China receives 15%, including 22% of GCC oil and chemical shipments.

Trade flows between the US and the Arab world have already been in decline. US imports from the region dropped from $91 billion in 2013 to $48 billion in 2023, largely due to reduced American dependence on foreign crude as domestic production increased.

Since 2015, the US has maintained a trade surplus with the region, which reached $20 billion in 2024. Although Arab non-oil exports to the US have risen—from $14 billion in 2013 to $22 billion in 2024—it is precisely these goods that now face increased exposure to the proposed tariffs.

Nevertheless, ESCWA suggests there may be a silver lining. Countries like Egypt and Morocco, whose exports face comparatively lower tariff rates, may find new openings in the US market.

“Potential opportunities may arise for Arab exporting countries,” the brief noted, highlighting that tariffs recently imposed by the US on goods from China, India, and the EU could make Arab products more price-competitive.

For Egypt, this could mean expanding its footprint in less tariff-sensitive segments, turning a potential setback into an opportunity for strategic trade realignment.