Fitch
Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic outlook for 2025, attributing the downgrade to the intensifying U.S. trade war.
Fitch anticipates that the CBE will begin its new monetary easing cycle on 20 February 2025, with expectations for a 100–200 basis point rate cut.
Looking further ahead, BMI expects household spending growth to stabilize, with an average annual increase of 4.4 percent YoY, which will bring total spending to LE 2.4 trillion by 2028.
Mubarak explained that the Suez Canal, a major source of foreign currency for Egypt, used to generate around $750 million per month, but has seen revenues significantly decrease, averaging $300 million per month this year.
The Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) affiliated with the Egyptian Cabinet shed light on the report issued by Fitch Solutions for the fourth quarter of 2024 on the pharmaceutical industry in Egypt, which sees Egypt as a well-established pharmaceutical market.
Economist Mohamed Rezq has lauded the recent step taken by Fitch Ratings after upgrading Egypt's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from (B-) to (B).
Moubarak highlighted that remittance flows from Egyptians working abroad surged to $7.5 billion in Q4 FY2023/2024
According to Fitch, the exchange rate float on March 6, 2024, alongside substantial financing totaling $57 billion, bolstered forecasts for the sector
Fitch Ratings upgraded its outlook for the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, and the Commercial International Bank (CIB) to positive while maintaining their respective ratings at “B-”
BMI Research, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, revised its forecast for Egypt’s growth in the current and coming fiscal years, displaying cautious optimism as it expects stronger growth in investment spending for FY2024/2025
The agreement on the Ras El-Hikma project, along with the increase in the flexibility of the pound exchange rate, has significantly reduced the risks of external financing.
From Fitch Solutions’ most optimistic view of Egypt’s growth to the lowered expectations of the IIF, a diverse range of forecasts paints a complex picture of the country’s potential growth in the coming year as the country faces numerous external geopolitical and economic shocks.
The Rating Agency attributed the revision to the deterioration in Egypt's external liquidity position and reduced prospects for bond market access, leaving the country vulnerable to adverse global conditions at a time of high current account deficits (CADs) and external debt maturities.
Standard & Poor's (S&P) kept Saturday Egypt's long and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at B/B with a stable outlook.
Fitch elaborated in a statement that Egypt's ratings are supported by its recent record of fiscal and economic reforms, its large economy with robust growth and strong support from bilateral and multilateral partners.
Egypt's ratings are supported by its recent record of fiscal and economic reforms, which the authorities are continuing, as well as its large economy, which has demonstrated stability and resilience through the global health crisis, the rating agency clarified.
Fitch expected continued pressure on operating profitability due to lower interest rates and higher loan impairment charges as borrower support measures end.
It added that the blockage would reduce global reinsurers’ earnings but should not materially affect their credit profiles, while prices for marine reinsurance will rise further as a consequence of the container ship ‘Ever Given’ grounding in the canal.
The rating agency clarified that the rating and outlook are reinforced by its recent track record of fiscal and economic reforms, which the authorities are furthering, as well as its large economy, which has demonstrated stability and resilience through the global health crisis.
Egypt succeeded in reversing the external debt curve, to record a decline for the first time in more than 4 years.
