Egyptian pound strengthening to LE 49 per dollar by June 2027: Reuters Poll

CAIRO – 19 July 2026: The Egyptian pound is expected to strengthen to LE 49 against the U.S. dollar by the end of June 2027, according to a Reuters poll that also showed broadly stable expectations for Egypt’s economic growth.

The survey indicated that concerns over the economic impact of the war in the Middle East had eased over the past three months. Economists, however, raised their inflation forecasts for the coming years.

The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Reuters between July 7 and 16 showed that Egypt’s economy was expected to have grown by 4.8 percent in fiscal year 2025/26, compared with the 4.6 percent forecast in an April poll.

Economic growth is projected to slow to 4.5 percent in fiscal year 2026/27 before accelerating to 5.3 percent in 2027/28 and 5.5 percent in 2028/29.

Official figures showed that the economy expanded by 5 percent during the January-March 2026 quarter, outperforming expectations despite supply-chain disruptions and higher oil prices linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

In May, the Central Bank of Egypt projected average real GDP growth of about 5 percent for the fiscal year ending in June 2026, slightly above its earlier forecast of 4.9 percent.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the pound to reach about LE 49 per dollar by the end of fiscal year 2026/27. This compares with an earlier forecast of LE 51.5 and a current exchange rate of approximately LE 50.6 per dollar, reflecting greater optimism over the currency’s stability.

Dominic Bartos, an associate economist at Moody’s Analytics, said Egypt’s economy remained in an expansionary phase and had absorbed the external shock in March better than expected. He cautioned, however, that prolonged uncertainty could weigh on exports and investment.

The poll also pointed to continued improvement in Egypt’s broader economic indicators, supported by a 31.2 percent increase in remittances from Egyptians working abroad.

Remittance inflows reached about $43.1 billion between July 2025 and May 2026, up from approximately $32.8 billion during the same period a year earlier.

Tourism revenues and Suez Canal receipts also continued to recover, while Egypt’s foreign-exchange reserves increased to $55 billion by the end of June 2026.

The International Monetary Fund announced in June that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt on the fifth and sixth reviews of the country’s economic reform programme. The agreement could make an additional $1.6 billion in financing available.

The IMF said the economic impact of the war on Egypt had remained relatively contained.

Despite the improved growth and currency outlook, economists raised their forecast for average inflation in fiscal year 2026/27 to 13.5 percent, up from the 12 percent projected in April.

Inflation is expected to ease to 10.4 percent in 2027/28 and 8.6 percent in 2028/29.

The upward revision came even as annual urban inflation slowed to 14.3 percent in June.

The Reuters poll also projected that the Central Bank of Egypt’s overnight lending rate would decline to 16 percent by the end of fiscal year 2026/27, from the current 20 percent.

The latest forecast is lower than the 17 percent projected in the previous poll.