IMF cuts Egypt’s current-year growth forecast to 4.4%

The International Monetary Fund has revised down its forecast for Egypt’s economic growth in the current fiscal year to 4.4 percent, compared with 4.8 percent in its April estimates, according to the World Economic Outlook report released on Wednesday.

At the same time, the IMF raised its estimate for Egypt’s growth in the fiscal year that ended on June 30 to 4.6 percent, up from 4.2 percent in its previous projections.

The revision came as the IMF also lowered its forecast for growth across the Middle East and Central Asia this year to 0.7 percent, down from 1.9 percent in April. However, it raised its forecast for the region’s growth next year by 1.9 percentage points to 6.5 percent.

The Fund attributed the downgrade for Middle East economies this year to the prolonged impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which lasted longer than previously expected. Its April outlook had assumed that energy production and shipping activity through the Strait would return to normal within a few months.

Despite these pressures, the IMF said oil and gas-importing countries in the Middle East and North Africa are expected to show relative resilience against higher energy and food prices linked to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fund also noted that the recent ceasefire agreement between Iran and the United States has helped bring oil prices down from their April peak.

Globally, the IMF cut its forecast for economic growth this year to 3.0 percent, compared with 3.1 percent in its April estimates. It also raised its forecast for next year to 3.4 percent, up 0.2 percentage points from the April outlook.

In April, the IMF had lowered its forecast for Egypt’s growth in FY2025/26 to 4.2 percent from 4.7 percent in its January estimates, citing the economic impact of the Iran war, including higher energy and commodity prices.