CAIRO - 14 April 2026: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its growth forecasts for Egypt, pointing to rising economic strain from ongoing regional tensions and higher global energy prices.
In its World Economic Outlook report released Tuesday, the IMF revised Egypt’s expected growth for the current fiscal year down to 4.2 percent, from 4.7 percent in its January estimates. It also lowered projections for the next fiscal year to 4.8 percent, compared with a previous forecast of 5.4 percent.
The downgrade comes amid the economic fallout from the conflict involving Iran, which has pushed up energy and commodity prices and disrupted key trade routes.
The IMF also sharply reduced its outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, forecasting regional growth at 1.9 percent this year, down from 3.9 percent previously. According to the Fund, oil- and gas-exporting countries have been among the hardest hit, particularly following disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz since late February.
Despite the weaker near-term outlook, the IMF expects the region to rebound in the next year, projecting growth of 4.6 percent. However, it warned that this recovery depends on a return to normal energy production levels and the resumption of shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz, conditions that remain uncertain if the conflict continues.
Egypt’s economy has shown some resilience in recent months. Data from the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development showed GDP growth accelerated to 5.3 percent in the second quarter of the current fiscal year, up from 4.3 percent a year earlier.
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