IMF raises Egypt’s GDP growth forecast to 4.5% for FY2025/26

CAIRO - 21 October 2025: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its projections for Egypt’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 4.5 percent in the fiscal year (FY) 2025/26, up 0.4 percentage points from its previous forecast, according to the Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook report, titled “Global Economy in Flux: Prospects Remain Dim.”

 

The IMF projects real GDP growth of 2.4 percent in FY2024, 4.3 percent in FY2025, and 4.5 percent in FY2026.

 

Inflation is forecast to moderate significantly, declining from 33.3 percent in 2024 to 20.4 percent in 2025 and 11.8 percent in 2026.

 

Meanwhile, the current account deficit is projected to narrow from –5.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to –5.1 percent in 2025 and –4.3 percent in 2026.

 

The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 7.4 percent in both 2024 and 2025, before edging slightly lower to 7.3 percent in 2026.

 

The report indicates that economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to accelerate from 2.6 percent in 2024 to 3.5 percent in 2025 and 3.8 percent in 2026, as disruptions to oil production and shipping ease and the effects of ongoing conflicts begin to subside.

 

The 2025 projection has been revised upward by 0.5 percentage points compared to the April outlook, largely due to stronger-than-expected performance in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies, particularly Saudi Arabia, and in Egypt, where the Fund noted that economic activity in the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations.

 

Globally, growth is projected to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, with advanced economies growing around 1.5 percent and emerging market and developing economies just above 4 percent. Inflation is projected to continue declining worldwide, though with variation across countries, remaining above target in the United States amid upside risks, while subdued elsewhere.

 

The report cautioned that risks remain tilted to the downside, citing prolonged uncertainty, rising protectionism, and labor supply shocks as potential drags on growth. It also warned that fiscal vulnerabilities, possible financial market corrections, and institutional erosion could pose additional threats to global stability.