IMF Projects 4% Growth for Egypt in FY2024/2025

CAIRO – 30 July 2025:  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecast for Egypt to 4 percent for the fiscal year ending June 2025, up from a previous estimate of 3.8 percent, according to the July update of its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.

In contrast, the IMF trimmed its projection for the ongoing fiscal year, which began in July, lowering it to 4.1 percent from the earlier forecast of 4.3 percent. The downgrade reflects delays in implementing structural reforms linked to Egypt’s $8 billion financial support program.

Despite the modest upward revision for the past year, the Fund emphasized that progress on reforms is critical to sustaining momentum. The Egyptian government had set a target of 4 percent growth for FY2023/24, up from 2.4 percent in the prior year, and aims to achieve 4.5 percent growth in the current fiscal year.

The IMF's revised forecast is supported by stronger-than-anticipated performance in Egypt’s non-oil sectors, particularly tourism and telecommunications. Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director of the IMF’s Research Department, noted in a press briefing that data from recent months exceeded expectations, especially outside the oil sector.

She clarified that the downgrade for FY2024/25 to 4.1 percent stems primarily from slower execution of agreed economic reforms.

At the same time, the IMF acknowledged “tangible progress” in stabilizing Egypt’s macroeconomic environment and stressed the need to advance deeper structural reforms to unlock growth and generate quality employment opportunities.

Regionally, the IMF upgraded its 2025 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa to 3.6 percent, up from 2.6 percent. This improvement is attributed to better conditions in oil-exporting economies and a softening U.S. dollar.

The IMF’s projections align with a Reuters poll conducted in July, which also estimated Egypt’s FY2024/25 growth at 4 percent, reflecting broader optimism despite the persistent structural challenges facing the economy.