How Egypt confronts Ethiopia’s man-made Nile surge to safeguard civilians

CAIRO – 4 October 2025: A few days after the official inauguration of the controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on September 9, 2025, Sudan, one of the downstream countries along the Nile River, was struck by man-made flooding following Ethiopia’s unilateral release of an excessive amount of water, reaching 700 cubic meters per day. In response, Egypt has implemented preemptive measures to mitigate the risks posed by such unilateral Ethiopian actions.

During the weekly Cabinet meeting, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated that the government had anticipated such scenarios and has been closely monitoring the GERD reservoir’s filling levels, particularly amid the current rainy season over the Ethiopian highlands, which significantly impacts the flow of Nile water. He emphasized that Egypt is well-prepared for these developments.

As part of its precautions, Madbouly explained, Egypt has released larger-than-usual amounts of water from the High Dam through the end of October. However, he warned that this measure could lead to flooding in certain parts of the Nile Delta, particularly in the Menoufia and Beheira governorates.

The Prime Minister urged individuals squatting illegally on low-lying Delta lands to evacuate immediately, noting that the government has already issued warnings to local authorities to ensure these areas are cleared to avoid potential damage.

Despite the government’s warnings, some homes in Ashmoun village, Menoufia, which are located on the bank of the river, were flooded after the Nile water level rose.

Youm7 has published striking footage showing the powerful rush of water released from the High Dam gates into the Nile, a majestic and familiar scene that recurs periodically. 

According to irrigation experts, the gates of the High Dam are opened periodically to relieve pressure when water levels in Lake Nasser rise. This is precisely what is occurring now, as a result of flooding in Sudan and the recent release of water from the GERD. The influx of water reaches Egypt’s High Dam approximately 17 days after being released upstream.

The High Dam remains the most vital water infrastructure in Egypt. For decades, it has regulated irrigation and protected the country from both droughts and floods. The High Dam will remain the largest dam in Africa and its reservior capacity is 162 billion cubic meters.

In comments to Al-Hikayha talk show on MBC Misr, Water Resources and Irrigation spokesman Mohamed Ghanim said that excessive water has been directed to the Toshka spillway and its lakes and other canals. 

The Toshka Spillway is a natural channel designed to discharge excess water from behind the Aswan High Dam. Its existence played a key role in the establishment of the Toshka National Project, located in the Toshka area near the tourist city of Abu Simbel, in the southern part of Aswan Governorate. Water flowed into the Toshka Spillway for the first time on October 15, 1996, when the water level in front of the High Dam rose to 178.55 meters.

In a statement released on Friday, the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation reassured citizens following recent floods that affected several villages in neighboring Sudan. The ministry emphasized that the Aswan High Dam remains “the primary safeguard” protecting Egypt from fluctuations in the Nile’s water levels.

Double impact on the Nile downstream countries

Egypt has accused Ethiopia of “reckless” management of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which triggered an unusually severe and delayed flood on the Nile beyond the normal seasonal peak.

In a statement on Friday, the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation condemned Ethiopia’s unilateral management of the mega dam, which is capable of holding back up to 74 billion cubic meters.

The ministry stressed that sudden, uncoordinated water releases last month created a “man-made flood” that inundated farmland and villages in Sudan and “placed the lives and resources of the populations of the two downstream countries (Egypt and Sudan) at risk.”

Egypt emphasized that such unilateral practices by Ethiopia “lack the most basic standards of responsibility and transparency, and pose a direct threat to the lives and security of the peoples of the downstream countries.”

Egypt said the estimates showed that Ethiopian dam operators committed “flouting accepted technical and scientific practices” by stockpiling far more water than expected at the end of August while sharply reducing releases from about 280 million cubic meters a day to just 110 million cubic meters on 8 September.

The Sudanese Ministry of Water Resources and Agriculture issued a statement on Friday indicating that seasonal forecasts show a shift in rainfall patterns, with the autumn season delayed and now expected to extend until the end of October due to the effects of climate change. Early warnings were issued regarding anticipated heavy rainfall over the Ethiopian Plateau (the source of the Blue Nile and Atbara River floods) with precipitation levels expected to be substantial and well above average.

Additionally, there has been a significant and unprecedented increase in the flow of the White Nile, which has seen rises ranging between 60% and 100% above the seasonal average since 2020. This surge is further evidence of the ongoing climate-related changes affecting the region. In parallel, flow levels in the Atbara River have also reached their peak in recent days.

These hydrological changes coincided with the completion of the storage and filling process at the Renaissance Dam (GERD). Since September 10, 2025, water has been discharged from the GERD reservoir, combining with seasonal floodwaters. The maximum recorded discharge reached approximately 750 million cubic meters per day. While such levels are not unprecedented during the flood season, the timing and volume of the discharge had a significant impact on the hydrological patterns and downstream water levels. As a result, the Nile River and its tributaries have experienced a sharp and notable rise in water levels.

Brief on the conflict

The crisis among the three Nile Basin countries dates back to May 2011, when Ethiopia began construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), prompting Egypt to raise concerns over its annual water share of 55.5 billion cubic meters. In 2014, tripartite negotiations between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia commenced in an effort to reach an agreement, although Ethiopia continued construction throughout the talks.

In 2015, the three countries signed the Declaration of Principles, which states that the interests of downstream countries should not be adversely affected by the dam’s construction. However, in October 2019, Egypt accused Ethiopia of obstructing a final agreement over a technical issue and called for the activation of Article 10 of the Declaration, which provides for mediation if negotiations reach a deadlock.

Despite Egypt’s repeated objections, Ethiopia has proceeded with unilateral actions, filling the dam’s reservoir annually without consulting Egypt or Sudan. These actions have occurred in the absence of a legally binding agreement governing the operation and management of the dam, an agreement Egypt insists is necessary to prevent potential harm to downstream countries.

Egypt’s long-term preparation

In an interview with Al Nahar channel, Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Hani Sweilam, affirmed that Egypt has not — and will not — allow its citizens to suffer as a result of Ethiopia’s unilateral actions regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). He noted that over the past five years, Egypt has adopted several measures to preserve its water resources, including preparations for scenarios of drought and prolonged drought.

Among these measures is the National Project for the Rehabilitation and Lining of Canals and Waterways, implemented across various governorates. The project aims to protect canal infrastructure and bridges, enhance the efficiency of water transport and distribution, improve water quality, and ensure timely delivery of water to farmers. It also contributes to boosting agricultural productivity and improving environmental and public health conditions. One of its primary objectives is to save approximately 5 billion cubic meters of water annually, with more than 7,000 kilometers of canals lined in the project's first phase.

In addition, Egypt has adopted a National Desalination Strategy, launched in 2017. The first phase aimed to produce 1.3 million cubic meters of desalinated water per day. The strategy spans six five-year plans extending through 2050.

On August 31, 2025, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly announced that Egypt is targeting the production of 10 million cubic meters of desalinated water per day within the next five to six years. He also emphasized the country's commitment to localizing the desalination industry to support this expansion.

Currently, Egypt operates around 100 desalination plants, with a combined capacity of 1.2 million cubic meters per day, according to a study by the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies, citing official figures from the Ministry of Housing.

While Egypt relies almost entirely on the Nile River for its freshwater supply, the country is actively expanding its seawater desalination efforts to ensure sustainable water resources and address the growing challenge of water scarcity.

Egypt’s annual water needs amount to about 114 billion cubic meters, while available water resources do not exceed 60 billion cubic meters. The current per capita share of water is approximately 500 cubic meters per year, which is less than half the internationally recognized water poverty threshold.

Additional reporting by Amr Mohamed Kandil