CAIRO – 7 November 2017: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said economic growth in Egypt is forecasted at 4.5 percent in fiscal year (FY) 2017/2018 after a growth of 4.1 percent in the previous twelve months, according to its latest Regional Economic Prospects report published today.
For the EBRD’s southern and eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) region, the report expects a growth of 3.8 percent in 2017 and 4 percent in 2018, supported by reform implementation and continued recovery in the tourism sector, as well as export rebounds in Egypt and Jordan.
Morocco is the only country in the SEMED region that is expected to see a slow-down in growth during 2018, as the base effect from the agricultural rebound in 2017 (after a very poor 2016) is removed.
Several countries, notably Romania and Turkey, are enjoying growth rates comparable to the pre-crisis levels of the mid-2000s.
The EBRD’s chief economist, Sergei Guriev, said, "The broad-based recovery is a very welcome development. It also creates a window of opportunity to carry out reforms that will ensure the sustainability of the stronger growth rates over the longer term." Growth across the region is expected to continue into 2018, but at a slightly more moderate pace of 3 percent.
Despite the recent acceleration in economic output, the EBRD expects average growth in the region to remain slightly below that of other comparable emerging markets.
It also said the current outlook is subject to numerous risks, including geopolitical tensions, persistent security threats, the growing appeal of populist anti-globalisation policies in advanced economies and a high degree of concentration in the sources of global growth.
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