OPINION: What remains for Russia in Syria?

CAIRO – 10 January 2018: The Syrian Civil War has been catastrophic. With major world powers using Syria as a battleground to display their military might, terrorist groups enforcing an ideology of intolerance across vast swathes of the county, and militiamen fighting for small pockets of influence, the death toll has spiraled out of control.

With the exception of Iran, Vladimir Putin’s Russia is the only actor winning in Syria. When Russia intervened on the side of Bashir al-Assad in September 2015, the Syrian government’s power was waning. Russian military might changed the face of the conflict. Top-rate Russian military hardware, in addition to ground support from Iran-allied Hezbollah and Shia militia, has enabled Assad’s preservation and allowed his forces to regain control of almost two-thirds of the country.

From the Russian base of Hmeimim, Putin declared Russia’s “victory” in Syria on December 11, indicating that the conditions were suitable for a political settlement to the conflict. This proclamation is most likely a symbolic move only, as Putin is unlikely to forfeit his military supremacy in Syria.

Russia’s omnipotent position in Syria has presented Putin with an unprecedented opportunity to determine a political solution in to the civil war, which is soon to enter its seventh year. Respective peace talks are taking place simultaneously, in both Geneva and Astana, and represent competing actors who have a stake in the conflict. There has also been increasing certainty that Russia will host a major peace conference in the Black Sea resort of Sochi later this month, or February, which has the possibility to take precedence over Geneva and Astana and mould the parameters of a political settlement in Syria.


Russia's President Vladimir Putin and his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Sochi on November 20, 2017. AFP/Mikhail Klimentyev

It comes as little surprise that Putin wants Russia to host a peace conference. With the U.S. largely disengaged from the Syrian conflict and stepping back in the Middle East, Russia sits front and centre and is extending its sphere of political leverage throughout the region.

The opportunity to host a conference in Sochi gives Putin a wealth of new opportunities to put his personal stamp on any subsequent political settlement, and gain the concessions his Russia deems necessary.

The participants at Sochi will likely discuss an agenda which is supported by all sides; the composition of a new constitution and the need for elections will dominate discussions. However there is divergence between those involved over the implementation of a peace settlement, which may kick up dust depending on the make-up of the participants. Russia will be able to exert influence over who attends, and the direction of the discussions.

The biggest fear of the United States is that Sochi conferences takes precedence over Geneva and Russia subsequently usurps the role of the UN as the leading mechanism to mediate conflict and broker peace. While the Geneva process has been wholly unsuccessful thus far in formulating any agreeable settlement to the Syrian conflict, the consensus in the West is that the UN is the only responsible broker and sponsor of a possible deal regarding Syria.

“We would not support, and what would have absolutely no legitimacy, would be a parallel process that’s parallel entirely to Geneva,” said Brett McGerk, U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL, to reporters last month.


Chemical attack victims are buried in a grave in Khan Sheikhun, Idlib, Syria. AFP

The UN is split over whether to attend the peace conference at Sochi or not. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has made it clear that major powers, such as the United States and Saudi Arabia, must consent to the Sochi conference if the UN is to participate. However, the UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, believes that a UN perspective should be put forth regardless.

The notion of U.S. participation at Sochi is highly contentious; this would give Russia a green light to control the proceedings, something the U.S. opposes. However, all other options are proving unviable. Assad no longer has to concede his position as a prerequisite to a political settlement, and there is no need for Assad and his allies to face confrontation in finding such a settlement.

Putin has maneuvered improved relations with, most notably, Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. At the back end of last year Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited Moscow in the first-ever official visit by a Saudi monarch to Russia. In Egypt, President Sisi has snubbed the U.S. and its military aid reduction, and is close to finalizing a deal which will allow respective air forces to use each other’s bases.

In the context of broader international relations, Russia’s extended political influence in the Middle East, along with the Trump administration’s passivity, had allowed Putin to play a growing role not just shaping the political future in Syria, but in the bi-lateral relationship between the U.S. and Iran.


Russia's President Vladimir Putin and his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad in Sochi on November 20, 2017. AFP/Mikhail Klimentyev

The Trump administration has focused primarily on defeating ISIS, and has failed at containing Iran. Trump ended support for militia groups on the ground, and has allowed Russia and Iran to sprawl through the war-torn country and across its borders. Whereas Trump’s position has led the U.S. into a retreat, Russian intervention has filled the void left by the U.S. and raised Russia’s status in the region.

Putin is seen to regulate Syria, and thus the other actors in the country. To the disapproval of the U.S., Russia is building an effective strategic partnership with Iran and has allowed Iran to entrench its influence in Syria. Although Russia maintains good relations with Turkey, the status of the Kurds in Syria is a point of contention between the two countries. Most pressingly, the inclusion of the YPG at Sochi could lead to a Turkish withdrawal from the talks.

From all angles, Russia has prevailed; as the U.S. withdraws Putin has grasped an opportunity to reignite Russian prestige and respect throughout the region and the world. With an upcoming presidential election, Putin will need to harness all the prestige possible.

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