January 2012
Cairo Financial Holding’s head of research breaks down Egypt’s economic woes
January 9, 2012
 
Mohsen Allam/Egypt Today

Q How has the revolution changed the economy of Egypt?
A The revolution changed the country forever and for the better. Egyptians were driven by their leaders over the last 60 years, and now that they have to bear the responsibility, they are afraid.

It will definitely take some time until they realize they actually rule through the parliament they’ve elected.

Let me put it this way, liberty was born on January 25, and like a newborn, it cries, and these cries are represented in labor demands, strikes and so on.

Egyptians who witnessed the change are still not convinced it will continue, so they tend to take what they can before things go back the way they were before the revolution.

Uncertainty [is a part of the] culture because throughout the last 30 years, Egyptians had no say. We are in a learning curve: Liberty cries now, yet it will crawl, stand up and run. And with proper education, the process will go faster and smoother.

On the economic front, the revolution has opened Egypt up as the land of opportunities.

A country with such a large population and an esteemed geographical location with all these historic sites as well as natural resources (unfortunately underdeveloped on all fronts) is poised to be a golden opportunity for any serious investor.

There are no limits for growth. Egypt could easily be one of the fastest-growing economies around the world through this decade and beyond.

Egypt is a key country for the world economy as we possess the international trade route via the Suez Canal.

When the Egyptian revolution erupted, unlike any other revolution around the world, all the international stock markets tumbled.

3That was because any instability in Egypt that could lead to the closure of the Suez Canal would mean over 5,000 miles of extra travel to go around Africa, taking into consideration the high oil prices and the world financial crisis and the debt woes in Europe. No one around the world could bear the political instability in Egypt. We should capitalize on that.

We should transform Port Said, for example, into a new Hong Kong. Such a project would redefine Egypt as a strong international economic power.

But this economic success is pending political stability, which I believe is negatively affected by regional powers that are afraid of the success of the Egyptian democratic model, so they do everything to hit its stability.

Yet the change will definitely reach these monarchs sooner or later.

The wind of change has hit the region, and if they do not bend with the change, they will break.

Q How do you think the political changes will affect the economy?
A Again, for the better. I am very optimistic about what’s coming. […] The current political instability is temporary, as any parliament that comes will work on increasing the country’s security and opening the country to investors, to prove to the people that they were worth their votes.

I pity all those striving for membership in the next parliament because they will be closely monitored.

If they don’t achieve what they undertook, they will lose their seats in the next round. The current political struggle is over a piece of a cake that is not yet baked and will give those who eat it a stomachache.

[Still], any political power that is going to rule will have a golden opportunity to rise as a hero in [the eyes] of Egyptians, simply because we are underdeveloped on all fronts.

Also, the monopolies of the last 30 years will vanish and a genuine free economy based on competition will replace it. And this is in the interest of the people.

Q How do you expect the incoming Islamist parliament will affect the economy?
A For decades the Salafis and Muslim Brotherhood have existed and no one saw anything positive from them.

Salafis don’t have anything to offer except a new tyranny under a religious umbrella, under which democracy is forbidden. Egyptians are religious by nature, yet they were never radical or extremist.

These Islamic [groups] capitalize on the illiteracy of the masses to gain political ground and this is a disgrace.

In Parliament, they will be forced to manage the economy, and any economy is based on revenues and expenses.

Subsequently they will have to maximize revenues in order to cover expenses. In other words, the revenue stream for the Egyptian economy comes mainly from the Suez Canal, tourism, and taxes — until they find other resources, they will have to depend on these.

Also, the stock market has not been forbidden by any of these religious groups.

On the contrary, Muslim Brotherhood members are active investors on the stock market. Any change that will be adopted by these groups will be in appearance and not in the core of anything.

They want to dye things with their color, as simple as that. They have nothing to offer. If they did, they wouldn’t capitalize on religion to push the people to vote for them.

They don’t see beyond the parliamentary seats. They lack vision to the extent that they do not realize Egypt has changed and they will be closely monitored. If they don’t deliver results and solutions, Tahrir Square is still there.

Q Where do you want the Egyptian economy to go? And how can we reach this place?
A I want the Egyptian economy to go where it deserves to be. We have all the factors for success, yet we lack planning and prioritization. We should be productive.

We should be a net exporter. We should capitalize on the existence of the Suez Canal on our soil. We should be able to triple tourist numbers, thus revenues, with the historic monuments and out warm weather.

We could be one of the fastest-growing economies if we concentrate on agriculture, which has one the highest weights in the GDP.

We are definitely underdeveloped in terms of infrastructure, housing and industrial projects, yet what will we prioritize? We need planning, which we have been missing for decades.

We need a true technocratic government that is based on the best people in every domain, not the most obedient people to the system, as [was the case under] the former regime. et

 
 
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