IT’S NOT OFTEN that one gets to read about football and the Mufti in the same newspaper headline, but the recent controversy over introducing a Ministry of Youth and Sports-run “prediction system” has brought the two together in a confrontation that has caused a rift among leading sports figures.

At the monolithic 20-story Ministry of Youth and Sports, a reluctant Mamdouh Abdalla, technical officer at the ministry’s sports sector, explains that the project was first presented to former Minister Aly El-Din Hilal in 2003.

“The rationale for introducing this system is to increase the ministry’s financial resources to give the sector a much-needed shot in the arm and help remove from the government’s shoulders the burden of funding tournaments, training costs, setting up youth centers and subsidizing small clubs. It’s all part of a trend of shifting the focus of the ministry from merely being a service-provider to becoming a profitable industry. The predictions system is used in 147 countries, especially in football, which is the most popular game in the world,” says Abdalla.

A ministry study reportedly claims that “predictions” could rake in as much as LE 1 billion a year — enough to cover not only the football budget, but that of other sports, and create over 1,500 jobs.

“The ministry will seek the help of a specialized company to supervise its implementation, but the company will be subject to the scrutiny of the ministry and the regulations set by special committees,” adds Abdalla.

But what exactly is this “predictions system”?

Egypt Today Archives Former Mufti Nasr Farid Wassel

Abdel Aziz El-Shafei, former head of the Olympic committee and minister of sports from 1977 to 1979, explains that it’s a complex setup.

“There is a formula which is basically this: Fans place their bets. The sum of money that goes back to those who won their bets would be a set percentage of the total number of bets placed. For example, if the amount collected in bets is LE 1,000, it’s decided beforehand by the authority that the rewards will total 30 percent to be divided among the betters according to how much they wagered. This means that the company will always make a 70 percent profit.”

El-Shafei explains that for the scheme to be profitable, it can only be applied to sports with regular tournaments and large fan bases.

“Companies that provide this service do their own studies to decide which sports they can apply the system to. They also fix the value of the stakes according to the income per capita and general standard of living in the country. This is the fastest way to secure large funds because there is no loss margin. If a foreign company gets to take over the project in Egypt, it would give the ministry a lump sum whether or not it makes a profit. It’s much like the BOT (Build, Operate, Transfer) system. The money is guaranteed,” he says.

A diehard supporter of the system, he adds that predictions are based on reading analyses and reports on individual teams and following information about team line-ups and injuries.

How’s that different from betting?

“The word ‘predictions’ takes the edge off the stigma associated with betting, which may stir religious controversy,” he says.

It was former swimming champion Abdel Latif Abu Heif who suggested the idea in 1994, Abdalla recalls. The ministry requested a fatwa from then-Mufti Mohammed Sayyed Tantawy. The question was: There is an international system that presents financial rewards for predicting the results of football games. This requires study, research and effort. What is the religious edict on this? Tantawy answered there was no objection under Shariah to presenting or receiving an award if the case is exactly as it is stated in the question, that is, the prediction is based on genuine effort and research giving insight into which team is most likely to win.

In 1997, then-Mufti Nasr Farid Wassel gave a similar fatwa stating that, “If receiving such grants or awards requires ample study, effort and research, as the question suggests, which would eventually lead to the collection of the relevant information to help the participant judge the possible results of a game correctly, as opposed to making a haphazard prediction, then the reward he receives for his effort is halal.”

Sheikh Abdel Moati Bayoumi, member of Al-Azhar’s Islamic Research Council and head of the religious committee at the People’s Assembly, explains that when it comes to fatwas, the answer is very much determined by the question.

“One can manipulate the question to elicit the answer he wishes to hear from the mufti. One can select bits and pieces of information and decline to mention others in order to reach a specific result.” He points out that the question posed to the mufti about the prediction system fails to mention that these predictions involve buying a ticket and betting money — which can be lost altogether — and that the reward is a predetermined percentage of the amount wagered.

“Financial or other rewards related to sports are only condoned by Shariah in one case, that is if two teams are competing and a third party pledges to give an award to the winning team. If two or more teams set aside a certain amount of money to be collected in full by the winner, it is haram. In the case of the involvement of a specialized company through which fans place their bets and win or lose their money according to the results of the game, then this is pure gambling and is haram because it’s based on chance.”

He says claims that this system is based on research are merely a means of distorting the truth and, even so, the system itself is a form of gambling. “Any money won through buying betting tickets is haram because the winner would be appropriating somebody else’s money, while some other person would lose all of his. The Holy Qur’an says, ‘Do not consume your property wrongfully nor use it to bribe the judges intending sinfully and knowingly to consume parts of other people’s property’ [Qur’an: 2:188].

“The companies that run this so-called service do their homework to guarantee profitability. For instance, they estimate that 100,000 people will bet LE 10 each. That’s LE 1 million. But they also predetermine the maximum they will give back to those who won the bets would be, say, 20 percent. The difference goes into the company’s pocket, or in this case, to the ministry’s coffers.” et