TURKEY HAS BEEN knocking at Europe’s door since before 1960, but only in December 1999 was this Muslim country between East and West officially recognized as a candidate for membership in the European Union (EU), the world’s largest trading bloc. In December 2002, the European Council announced that if Turkey met its political “Copenhagen criteria” by the end of 2004, it would open negotiations without delay.

The European Commission presented a vital progress report on these political criteria, together with a recommendation on opening negotiations, at the end of September. The decision irked the French government in a way that can only be interpreted as blatant xenophobia.

The French are scared of the rising number of Muslims in the land of Gaul

Let us remember: Until quite recently, Turkey was denied EU membership on the grounds that it failed to meet the Copenhagen criteria, which basically relate to human rights and democracy. In addition, Turkey’s dispute with EU member Greece over the status of Cyprus was added to the list of reservations about Turkish membership. Lately, a draft law that would have criminalized adultery, which was part of the package aimed at bringing Turkish criminal law into conformity with European standards, was presented as another obstacle.

The real issue, Islam, was never mentioned except privately and in whispers. However, as the moment of truth approaches with Turkey’s fulfillment of the Copenhagen criteria doing what was necessary in Cyprus, accommodating the EU by scrapping the adultery clause, approving a new penal code that will boost women’s rights and punish police more severely for torture one hears a crescendo of voices from certain European countries (particularly France) speaking out against Turkish membership.

Nearly all of those voices are motivated by fear of Islam.

Looking cold-bloodedly at numbers alone, the French resistence against the Turks could be logically explained as follows: Demographers in France estimate that 20 to 30 percent of the French population under the age of 25 is now Muslim. Statistics also indicate that native-born French are not having many babies, but France’s large Muslim immigrant community is, and it is the largest in any state in the European Union, currently representing approximately 7 percent of the nation’s 60 million people.

Associated Press Photo Among the human rights legislation Turkey passed to meet the Copenhagen criteria was a package of bills protecting the rights of Jews (seen here at a synagogue in Istanbul) and Kurds.

In other words, the French are scared of the rising number of Muslims in the land of Gaul. The way in which the French politicians express the thoughtless fears of their people, their delusional arrogance is simply breathtaking.

Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin asked at the end of September if Europe really wanted “the river of Islam to enter the riverbed of secularism.” French Finance Minister (and rumored presidential hopeful) Nicolas Sarkozy added, “a decision as important as the membership of Turkey in Europe could only be taken after there had been a referendum in France.” President Jacques Chirac echoed this “need for a referendum” a couple of days later when he met with the German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, much to the displeasure of the latter.

How did Raffarin, Sarkozy and Chirac get the idea that France runs Europe, let alone that Turkey’s admission into the EU rests on France, and France alone?

Still, next to the French one can also find subtle voices across Europe that want to undermine Turkey’s EU membership. Again, they don’t argue bluntly with religion, but with numbers.

The Brussels-based think tank Friends of Europe, for example, recently published an analysis predicting that Turkey’s EU membership would cost the Union 15 billion a year. The German Eastern European Institute in Munich puts the figure at 14 billion. Both conclude that Germany will have to bear the biggest burden of an expansion to include Turkey, about 2.4 billion a year. Both predict a wave of some 3 million poor Turks migrating to Germany within the next three decades. Germany has, by a wide margin, been the preferred destination in Europe for Turkish migrants in the past 40 years; today, the country hosts about 2 million Turks and Kurds. In essence, Berlin is the third-biggest Turkish city.

However in total contradiction to France the German government is not concerned about Turkey’s EU bid. In general, Germans have no fixed opinion about any EU expansion. They may grumble here and there about the costs, knowing that they always have to bear the biggest financial burden when it comes to new members. But so be it, including the case of Turkey. Even though only 26 percent of Germans support Turkey’s membership, according to a survey this year by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, there will be no national outcry if it does happen.

Just recently, the conservative opposition in the German parliament, the Christian Democratic Union, learned that even within their own party there will be no majority for a referendum on Turkey. Also, the eco-socialists in Berlin, Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, enjoy a high rate of public approval for their foreign policies. Both leaders have explicitly expressed their support of Turkey’s EU membership.

All in all, this means a draw between two of the leading nations of the EU, France and Germany.

So, Turkey bears responsibility for whether or not it becomes a full member. In Turkey, there is agreement across different political groups and actors that opening EU negotiations is a vital step if the strong dynamic of political reform is to continue and become deeply rooted. There is also widespread pessimism in Turkey about the impact on political reform if the European Council does not decide to open full negotiations in December.

If Turkey joins the Union as a full member in 2015, it will have a population of 82.1 million, slightly smaller than that of Germany’s 82.4 million. But Turkey’s economy is just 1.9 percent of the GDP of the 25 current EU members, and the country is characterized by major regional inequalities. Given its small size, Turkish accession will have minimal impact on the EU’s economy. The EU, however, could benefit in particular from Turkey’s demographic profile, which is marked by a much younger, growing population, millions of whom will migrate to Central Europe. This would happen at a time when the EU is beginning to feel the negative impacts of its aging population, as Germany already does.

As a large (and largely poor) country, Turkey will be eligible for significant budget transfers from the Union, “though these will depend both on policy reforms in regional and agricultural policies in the EU in the next 10 years, and on the actual negotiations,” says a recent titled Friends of Europe. The likely budget flows “in the first three years of Turkish membership are estimated at a total of 45.5 billion.”

Turkey’s strategic geographical location and its large Muslim population also have implications for the EU, probably the most important ones in the aftermath of 9/11. Turkey is the only Muslim country in the world that is governed by what can be called a democracy. Therefore, Turkey is the proof that Islam and democracy are compatible, a fact that is vehemently denied by radical Islamists. There can be no doubt: It is in the EU’s vital strategic interests that Turkey stays democratic, stable, prosperous and a friendly ally.

To again exclude the “Muslim part of Europe” from the Union would be extremely shortsighted in the fight against global terrorism, would insult the Turks as a nation, and fuel dangerous fundamentalist tendencies at the Bosporus that the Western world cannot afford. Every other calculation that looks on financial or outdated religious aspects would cost Europe in the end many more billions of Euros in the fight against Islamists than a decent EU membership of Turkey will cost now.

But there is one more overlooked aspect of Turkey’s EU bid, and that is Morocco.

It is no secret that the late King Hassan II was determined to bring Morocco at least into a free-trade zone with the European Union. Young and old Moroccans alike have been debating for quite a while how the country should redefine its place in the world. There is no question that globalization already pulls the country toward its liberal, industrialized neighbors across the Strait of Gibraltar. Nevertheless, this kingdom at the crossroads of many civilizations will depend on how politicians and citizens respond to global pressures for democratization and economic reform. Its 1997 parliamentary elections were exceptionally free and fair, and the government is headed by a prime minister.

Few Arab countries have done better at cleaning up their human rights record or attracting back exiles and dissidents. Many in Morocco’s educated elite hope the new king, Mohammed VI, will transform the constitutional monarchy from one that rules to one that reigns, like in Great Britain and Spain. Then and only then Morocco could indeed become a promising EU candidate. There are indications that the king is going to continue his father’s policy of seeking formal candidacy to join the EU.

Morocco already conducts 65 percent of its trade with Europe, and the bulk of foreign investment comes from the north. European companies are buying privatized utilities and preparing to build much of the country’s new infrastructure. Almost 1 million Moroccans currently reside illegally in Europe. They are channeling massive remittances to their families in Morocco and the cultural values and skills they learn in Europe are widely disseminated back home as ease of cross-national communication accelerates.

Every summer an astonishingly large “people connection” is formed between Europe and Morocco. Not only are there 2 million European tourists flocking to the beaches of the Arab kingdom, but there are also hundreds of thousands of Moroccan nationals living in Europe who drive across the Strait of Gibraltar as tourists to visit their families and enjoy the sun that is so lacking in vast parts of Europe.

Geographically, historically and culturally, Morocco is closer to Western Europe than most of Eastern Europe. The Strait of Gibraltar can be considered a geographical accident. As Morocco would like to further align its future with the north, you can bet that sun-hungry Europeans will see a more familiar identity as they look south. And once inside the EU, Turkey would be the ideal partner to lobby for Morocco and maybe even other North African states to join Europe.

This was expressed 40 years ago by Gertrud Schmirger, alias Gerhart Ellert, an expert on the Maghreb and a bestselling Austrian author, who called Northern Africa “Europe’s lost coast.”

It’s time to rediscover lost ideas with Turkey at the forefront.  et