HE HAD TO fire two ministers to guarantee a vote, but Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has finally managed to get his Cabinet to approve in principle his Gaza pullout plan. True, the move cost him the resignation of two extreme right-wing ministers, plus his parliamentary majority due to the protest, but whats a sacrifice or two if its all for the nations good?

As it turned out, Sharon didnt even have to sack the two ministers on June 6, the leaders plan was voted through with a comfortable margin of 14 to seven, although the approved initiative is a watered-down version of his previous proposal, which was rejected by his Likud Party on May 2.

The previous plan proposed a one-step withdrawal of all Israeli forces and settlements from the Gaza Strip and the dismantlement of a small number of settlements in the West Bank. Ministers have still voted to remove all 21 illegal settlements in the Gaza Strip home to 7,500 Jewish settlers along with four more in the West Bank, but in a phased dismantlement that wont begin before next year, and which will require Cabinet approval at every stage.

In other words, the yes vote is not a victory for Sharon. The majority of Likud Party members and ministers remain opposed to the plan, and the text that was passed in early June is vague enough to allow Sharon on one side, and party members opposed to a pullout on the other, to put a positive spin on the results for the time being.

The real test will come when the Cabinet will vote next March in the 38th year of the illegal Israeli occupation of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank on the first of the four planned phases of dismantlement. Ministers have said that the pullout will be dependent on the circumstances at the time, essentially leaving open the possibility of aborting the initiative altogether.

Sharon is also facing opposition from the settlers living in Gaza, despite enjoying majority support for his plan among the Israeli public. In a bid to appease the settlers, Sharons government will be offering financial compensation beginning this August, with the hope that most of the settlers will leave of their own accord ahead of the phased withdrawal dates. The government timetable calls for a forced evacuation of settlers who refuse to leave their homes by September 1, 2005.

Associated Press Ariel Sharon fired Benny Elon and Avigdor Lieberman of the hardline National Union Party on June 4 to secure majority support for his proposed Unilateral Disengagement Plan

And Egypt may be there to save the day.

None of the uncertainty has prevented Egypt from taking the decision to play an early role in preparing Palestinian forces to police the Gaza Strip after a possible Israeli withdrawal. For the task, Egypt has so far committed to send 200 security experts to Gaza to offer training to the Palestinians.

Egypt and Israel are also finalizing details for a small number of Egyptian troops to patrol the section of the border along the Gaza Strip. As per the Camp David Accords, Egypt is permitted only a minimal police force along the border, not a heavy military presence.

But Israel is now keen to see Egypt deploy a small force of about 200 troops in order to prevent what the Israelis claim to be a problem of cross-border Palestinian weapons smuggling through underground tunnels. Though an amendment to the Camp David Accords to accommodate an Egyptian presence along the border is unlikely, a memorandum or protocol will probably be added.

Egypt is also willing to play a part in overseeing the withdrawal, specifically by providing assurance that settlements, Israeli facilities, and authority in Gaza are handed over to the Palestinian side in an orderly fashion. This will involve a group of Egyptian advisers to accompany and direct various stages of the withdrawal.

Not surprisingly, there are a number of critics in Israel opposed to Egyptian involvement in the Gaza Strip, with commentators from several leading Israeli newspapers slamming the idea of opening the door to any kind of Egyptian presence. In early June, an article ran in the daily Maariv stating that Egypt is interested in a total Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip so as to give terror against [Israel] a free hand.

Once they control Gaza, writes Daniel Doron in the conservative Jerusalem Post, the Egyptians will be able to establish an enclave similar in purpose to the one Syria maintains in Southern Lebanon. Palestinian military factions in Gaza ... could [then] fulfill for Egypt the role Hezbollah serves for the Syrians.

Paranoia and irrationality aside, there is no denying that self-interest is the driving factor behind Egypts decision to play a role in the Gaza pullout plan, and its participation should not be mistaken as being guided by a sense of altruism toward the Palestinians.

Emad Gad, a political analyst with the Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, says, Its very important for Egypt to enhance the strength of the Palestinian National Authority [by providing training to the Palestinian security forces], because the alternative means that Hamas would have control over the Gaza Strip, and the Egyptian government believes Hamas is just another branch for the Muslim Brotherhood. They see this as a threat to Egyptian security.

Egyptian government officials have suggested that interest in providing security training is due mainly to concerns about Gaza descending into chaos in the event of a sudden Israeli withdrawal. But an Egyptian-trained Palestinian security force no matter how efficient will hardly make a dent in the bigger picture should Gaza indeed possess the ingredients for some sort of post-Israeli breakdown.

Gad says it is the usual game of politics, and that aside from fears of Hamas gaining control of the Gaza Strip and becoming a threat to Egyptian security, Egypts involvement is also driven in large part by a desire to strengthen economic ties with Israel and improve relations with the United States.

Egypt has a great deal to gain from enhancing its economic relations with Israel, and we know that improving relations with Israel means improving relations with the US.

Putting their past differences aside, the former enemies are currently establishing a bilateral committee that will advance economic and security affairs between the two countries. Just one day after the vote, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom held meetings in Egypt with President Hosni Mubarak and Mubaraks political adviser, Osama El-Baz.

After the meeting, Shalom told reporters that the establishment of the bilateral committee indicated a strategic shift in Egyptian policies toward improved relations with Israel.

Whatever Egypts motives, it has been putting significant pressure on Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, who has already agreed to the Egyptian demand that he consolidate all Palestinian security forces into three units: a police department, intelligence services, and national security services in a paramilitary role. Arafat has, however, rejected the possibility that he would serve solely as a figurehead leader and demanded continued political authority.

But any Egyptian role in the Gaza Strip is made uncomfortable when viewed in light of Sharons motives for pulling out of the Gaza Strip. Let no credit go to the godfather of the settlement movement for his pullout plan. Just three years ago, Sharon vowed never to dismantle a single settlement, so his about-face can hardly be attributed to an improvement in character.

Unlike the West Bank, Gaza holds no special historical or religious significance for Israeli Jews, and the Israeli left has wanted for years to be rid of the burden of protecting the few thousand settlers living in the midst of 1.3 million Palestinians, who have become increasingly radicalized since the peace promises of Oslo fell through and the Intifada began.

But Sharon, who never seems to tire of using the most brutal means to repress any kind of Palestinian resistance, is likely motivated by the demographic realities, which in the next 10 to 15 years will see the Palestinians become a majority in the combined area of Israel, the West Bank and Gaza.

Should the Palestinians decide to drop their demand for a state of their own and instead start asking for voting rights in all of the territory Israel now governs, they could end up with majority rule, marking the end of Israel as a Jewish state.

Sharon is also pinning his hopes on the idea that a pullout from Gaza will allow him to hold on to more West Bank land, as well as East Jerusalem. The orchestrated affair was clearly revealed in April when US President George Bush whose speech might as well have been written by Sharon himself described the Gaza pullout plan as courageous, and said it would be unrealistic for Israel to return to its pre-1967 borders.

As usual it is the Palestinian voice that is all but being ignored. Perhaps there is no greater insult than Israel and Egypt paying so much attention to security issues in the Gaza Strip, turning the victim of an illegal occupation into little more than a chess piece for mutual gains, and in so doing, reducing the image of the Palestinians of Gaza to a people in need of policing.

And while Arafat may be willing to play along with the ruse, Hamas is by no means inclined to do the same. The Islamic resistance movement has been critical of Egypt playing a role in the Gaza Strip, and resents the suggestion regardless of the source that a Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip could become a threat to Egypts security.

Given Hamas position, Egypt will have to tread carefully if it wants to be seen as playing an honest role in the process. Gad says that Egypt is aware of the situation, and will not start the mission without coming to an understanding with the Palestinian organizations beforehand.

Although there is the worry that Israel will abort or postpone Sharons pullout plan, Gad says Egypt will not be over-committing itself and so has little to worry about in this regard.

If Israel will not pull out, it is very easy, Gad says. Egypt will do a great job in providing training to the Palestinians, and after that Egypt can wrap up its mission and return home.

But even with a fairly small presence in Gaza, Egypt runs the risk of ending up in the nightmare scenario of being blamed for lack of order should the Palestinian resistance groups continue to launch operations against Israel from the Gaza Strip. Hamas in particular has condemned the disengagement as a fraud, pointing out that Israel will maintain control of Gazas coast, airspace and border with Egypt.

Gad says it is the nature of the relationship with Israel. Egypt has always paid a price for the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Our land was occupied, we lost more than 100,000 soldiers in the conflicts, and our economy has been affected.

As for the situation improving for the Palestinians in the event of an Israeli withdrawal, Gad says not to expect much.

The Palestinians will control over 360 square kilometers of land. Its a start at best. There is no Road Map and there is no real American or European role, so the Palestinians have to play along with Sharons plans. They will not get their state in one shot. It will be a gradual process. Unfortunately this is how the game has to be played. et