ATEF EBEID IS probably re-gretting his choice of words a few months back. You remember the ones were talking about

If anyone thinks he can do a better job, let him step forward! the soon-to-be-former Prime Minister snapped in response to constant criticism of Cabinets performance. No wonder President Hosni Mubaraks office was besieged with 71 million applications the next day.

We joke. Kind of. Either way, it seems the President was listening.

Thats right, folks: Our Six Billion Dollar Man is apparently heading for the door, along with many of his colleagues, after Mubaraks office leaked the word in mid-June that the government had been asked to tender its resignation by the first week of July.

It came just as we were about to lose hope, for it seemed every time a Cabinet shuffle was in the offing, Ebeids Ministry for Repelling Change conjured up some regional or national disaster to stave it off at the last minute: The outbreak of the second Intifada. The Assiut train disaster. Americas invasion of Iraq. And, lately, Mubaraks back problems: On the eve of the expected shuffle, the President left for Germany to seek treatment for a slipped disc, leaving Ebeid to exercise the powers of the presidency until his return.

Barring a Third World War, the shuffle is coming as soon as the president is back; Al-Gomhuriyya and Al-Ahram (the twin Voices of the State) have promised as much.

Mamdouh El-Beltagui

So, whos going to be the local press next chief punching bag? Early rumors put Minister of Information Safwat El-Sherif in the lead, only to see him elected the new head of the Shura Council (at Mubaraks nomination) and subsequently resign the cabinet seat hes held for some 22 years.

Among those now topping the Cairo Gossip Mills (Un)official Short List for PM are Minister of Finance Medhat Hassanein and Central Bank of Egypt Governor Mostafa El-Okda, both of whom are given strong odds as the prime minister is generally a finance wizard or economist. But long-shot betters say not to count out two dark horses whose stock has been on the rise of late, namely Central Auditing Organization head Gawdat El-Malt and intelligence chief turned peace negotiator Omar Suleiman.

Whoever he is, the new PM will inherit a stack of serious problems and millions of sour-faced citizens who suspect the faces may change, but the policies will not.

As for dear Atef? Were not terribly worried about him: Last time we checked, the PM was maintaining his cool and his Colgate smile in the face of the attacking oloug (thuggish, uncultured bastards, to borrow from former Iraqi Minister of Information Mohammed Said El-Sahhaf) to the very end.

Place your bets

Ebeids Cabinet colleagues are trading in their Cuban cigars for anti-depressants as they wait to see who will stay and who will go. Some are scheduling appointments with their shrinks for counseling on how to adapt to life after Cabinet, while others have already written themselves congratulatory letters for keeping their posts.

While members of the local press place their bets, we offer this quick roundup of the (absolutely unsubstantiated) handicapping going on around the nations capital as we head to press:

Youssef Wali, the deputy PM who has also been minister of agriculture for nearly 22 years, had his feet so firmly planted in the ground that many called him untouchable. But rumor has it the spate of disasters on his watch (including bribery scandals involving carcinogenic fertilizers, among others) could see him out. Among the Gossip Mills favorite candidates to replace him: Saad Nasar, currently governor of Fayoum and a former head of the ministrys Agricultural Research Center; and Abdel Raheem Shehata, currently the governor of Cairo.

From behind his gas mask, a source tells us Minister of State for Environment Mamdouh Riyadh, suspecting his days are numbered, has been closeted away with his advisors polishing the ministrys development plans. Too late, but we appreciate the effort. Among those who could replace him is Nadia Makram Ebeid, a stalwart of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) who was also the nations first-ever minister of state for environment. No word yet on whether the portfolio will be upgraded to a full ministry.

Will the Big Zero Egypt won for its 2010 World Cup troubles sink Minister of Sports and Youth Ali El-Din Helal? Maybe, if the signs of age on the poor mans face these day are any indication. Still, word on the street is that Helal could keep the sports half of his portfolio, with the youth side going to someone who qualifies as young. Either way, Helal is likely to ask Minister of Health Dr. Mohammed Awad Taggedine (a strong contender to keep his post) for some help managing his migraines: The Central Auditing Organization is still investigating the Mondial Scandal.

Omar Suleiman

The punters in the nations capital havent reached a consensus on the future of Minister of Foreign Trade Youssef Boutros-Ghali, one of Cabinets more controversial figures. Some are positive Boutros-Ghali will have to fall on his sword for the sluggish rise in the nations exports and for advocating the float of the Egyptian pound (forget that it was the right decision: this is about appeasing the public), while others see him going on to bigger and better things. Those in YBGs corner have him as a top candidate for deputy prime minister and head of Cabinets economic policy group. Those sticking needles in his effigy claim NDP heavyweight and PA Economic Committee Chairman Mahmoud Moheieddin could take YBGs seat at the table.

As for Minister of Domestic Trade and Supply Hassan Khedr? The man who would see the entire nation switch to the Atkins diet (what better way to end those nasty bread lines?) is being given an even chance at keeping his seat, the recent flap over ration cards for the poor notwithstanding. Perhaps he could boost his chances by adding gateaux to the cards

Despite his overwhelming self-confidence and jihad against private lessons, many a parent would like to see Minister of Education Hussein Bahaa Eddine get an F for his flip-flop on the sixth grade.

As for the Ministry of Tourism? While there are few signs that Mamdouh El-Beltagui is leaving, more than a handful of people are being touted as his possible successor. Among the leaders of the pack are Mohamed Shafiq (head of Misr Tourism Co.), Adel Rady (head of the Tourism Development Authority) and Elhamy El-Zayat (head of the Egyptian Federation of Tourism Chambers). The weirdest rumor weve heard yet about El-Beltaguis portfolio: That the expected downsizing of Cabinet will see the ministries of tourism and civil aviation merge under the leadership of current Minister of Civil Aviation Ahmed Shafiq.

Minister of Social Affairs Amina El-Guindy is unlikely to be shown the door, the gossips tell us, for fear of the message that might send to the poor. How so? It goes something like this: By insisting that social insurance and pension funds remain in the hands of the National Investment Bank instead of being handed over for Cabinet to invest (read: spend) as it pleases, El-Guindy has made herself bulletproof. (Then again, El-Guindy has annoyed a widower or two by failing to allow them to collect their deceased wives pensions, as she was ordered to do by the Supreme Constitutional Court. Never underestimate the power of the senior citizens lobby.)

Medhat Hassanein

Also unlikely to go is Minister of Culture Farouk Hosni, who was recently tapped to head the information portfolio on an interim basis until the shuffle. While there may be some change in the air for Hosni (will the culture portfolio be merged back into the ministry of information, which it once called home?), the minister has come up smelling like roses of late. And why shouldnt he? He marked June by flying off to Sharm El-Sheikh to inaugurate a perfume exhibition.

Well stop here, folks, and offer our sympathies to those on their way out and to those on their way in. Life in Cabinet is no walk in the park. et